Franklin, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS64 KOHX 180447
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1047 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

 - Rain developing this evening and continuing into Saturday.

 - Rain showers changing to scattered snow showers late Saturday.
   A dusting to half inch possible by Sunday morning.

 - All of Middle TN will experience dangerously cold conditions
   with temperatures below freezing for 72+ hours starting
   Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The radar continues to fill up with returns this evening but
soundings still show a lot of dry air below 600 mb. The low
levels are gradually saturating ahead of an approaching short wave
and we should see saturated profiles develop over the next
several hours. Light rain should start in the west over the next
hour or so and continue to spread east into the overnight as warm
air advection amps up. Rain totals through the overnight look to range
from 0.25-0.50". The majority of the rain will push out by day
break and a strong cold front associated with a low to our north
will push through during the day Saturday. That will bring falling
temperatures in the afternoon. Rain showers will linger
throughout Saturday becoming snow showers in the evening as colder
air builds in. Overall not expecting much snow accumulation but
some area could pick up a dusting mainly over the eastern part of
the area and maybe up to 0.50" in the far northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Get out and enjoy the rest of this relatively mild, sunny day,
because major changes are on the way. Today`s nice wx is brought
to you by high pressure centered along the Carolina coast. This
was keeping the air dry and allowing warmer south winds to kick
in. Looking upstream, there was a low pressure system over the
Upper Great Lakes with a frigid Arctic air mass sweeping
southward on the backside. Also upstream, we see a shortwave over
the OK/TX Panhandle. The plunging arctic front and shortwave from
the west will come together to give us a shot of rainy wx tonight
into Saturday, followed by a plunge into the deep freeze that
will last through midweek.

Tonight`s system still shows widespread quarter to half inch
rainfall amounts. Most of that will fall by mid morning Saturday
with rainfall tapering off to just scattered light showers /
intermittent sprinkles in the late morning and afternoon.

We continue to expect the big cold front to arrive late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Residual showers will change over to snow
showers for Saturday night. Initially, ground temps will be too
warm for any accumulations, but as temps plummet through the
night, light accumulations may develop from the heavier snow
showers. Models show very strong cold advection, adequate low
level moisture, and some lift from a secondary mid level trough
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will spell a light
dusting of snow for many areas with around one half inch in some
spots. Locations along the KY border and the Plateau could reach
up to 1 inch in a few spots. By daybreak Sunday, temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 20s area-wide, and those temps will not
rise much if any through the day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The coldest air of this winter and since last January will settle
in for Sunday  night through Wednesday. Widespread single digit
lows are expected with highs mostly in the 20s. The lowest wind
chills will be Monday morning, down around 5 below in some areas.
By that time, we will likely have cold wx headlines in place to
further emphasize the risk from exposure to this frigid air.

By Thursday afternoon, everyone should climb above freezing. Our
extended forecast from the NBM shows a small chance for mixed
wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday. This potential is very
uncertain as most models shows the main storm track and impactful
wx tracking well south and southeast of our area.

Beyond Thursday, models vary too much to offer anything more than
a general pattern of colder than normal and unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Rain is moving in from southwest to northeast with the heaviest
falling through the overnight hours. MVFR cigs and vis can be
expected during this time with cigs dropping to IFR by daybreak.
Southerly winds will remain gusty overnight with gusts between
20-25 kts. Winds will shift out of the north behind the cold front
around 18Z. Light showers and low cigs will linger through the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  53  27  31 / 100  70  30  20
Clarksville    41  48  25  28 / 100  40  30  20
Crossville     37  48  25  28 / 100  90  50  40
Columbia       45  53  26  30 / 100  70  30  20
Cookeville     41  49  26  29 / 100  90  50  40
Jamestown      37  47  24  28 / 100  90  70  60
Lawrenceburg   44  54  27  30 / 100  60  30  20
Murfreesboro   44  53  27  31 / 100  70  30  20
Waverly        42  50  24  28 / 100  50  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Baggett